Freenations

MONTENEGRO - ANOTHER GERMAN PUPPET STATE?

Report by the German Journalists of www.german-foreign-policy.com 19/5/06
Translated by Edward Spalton 20/5/06 for www.freenations.freeuk.com

Concerned by the high bar set by the European Union for winning the
referendum - 55 percent of the vote - the Djukanovic forces were found
trying to buy votes in March. David Binder, New York Times.

A SORT OF RESURRECTION FOR YUGOSLAVIA

Belgrade/Podgorica/Berlin (own report) Next Sunday the people of Montenegro vote on leaving the State Union with Serbia. The vote will decide the formal completion of the German-sponsored final destruction of former Yugoslavia. The supporters of secession will profit from the support of Germany and the EU, who have given uninterrupted support to leading personalities in Montenegro for years, in spite of their long-known, obvious, criminal activities in smuggling. Admittedly Berlin would welcome a further isolation of Serbia although the final secession of Montenegro will not have any further decisive significance. In any case, according to political commentators, the State Union with Serbia is "not at all functional". In the meantime, in a move which lays bare the mainspring of the NATO war, the EU is working on a plan to improve the utility of South Eastern Europe for businesses from the Western industrial states. The region of powerless mini-states of shattered former Yugoslavia should be put back together again in the form of a free trade area.

Divided Negotiations
The Montenegrin secessionists can thank the promises of EU circles for a considerable degree of their support, arising from assurances that the economic position would be improved by the break with Belgrade. From the end of the war Berlin influenced Montenegrin internal policy in this direction. The most visible expression of this was the adoption of the D-Mark, which became the sole official legal tender in 2000. This enabled the German government to detach Montenegro (then still a constituent republic of Yugoslavia) from the sovereignty of Belgrade and favoured further movements towards secession. Brussels raised no objections to the continuing monetary division of Yugoslavia and subsequently approved the introduction of the Euro in Montenegro. In the actual negotiations for associated status with Serbia-Montenegro, the EU is conducting separate talks with both parts of the country behind the scenes and so is aiming towards a dissolution of the State Union. (1)

Observers believe that a German-European measure may have a decisive influence on the outcome of the referendum. The EU suspended association status negotiations with Belgrade on account of the government's failure to deliver to the Hague one of its citizens accused of war crimes (2). This punitive action occurred at the beginning of May, a few weeks before the vote was due. It is said that ten to fifteen percent of Montenegrin voters are undecided. In view of this renewed demonstration of anti Serbian policy from Brussels, they may be persuaded to vote for separation from Belgrade to achieve better prospects of getting a share of EU subsidies. (3) In spite of the support from Brussels and Berlin, a close-run referendum result appears likely next Sunday. It cannot be ruled out that the fiercely fought secessionist campaign may lead to violent disturbances.

War Criminals and Smugglers

The protagonists of Montenegrin secession come from highly questionable political circles. International investigators accuse President Milo Djukanovic of acquiring a fortune of millions during his political career from the illegal sale of cigarettes and of promoting secession as a means of avoiding prosecution for dubious business practices. According to the opinion of an investigator In the Munich Customs Office, smuggling from Montenegro
"accounts for misappropriation of tax in billions" and this has occurred "under the eyes of the EU". The witness asserts that "for years he informed the appropriate authorities of the occurrences" (4) Consequences remain. Whilst the Italian Navy was conducting operations against refugee boats from Albania, Montenegrin boats could deliver their lucrative cargo undisturbed to EU territory and so create a financial basis for the secession.

GERMAN FOREIGN OFFICE TO WELCOME WAR CRIMINAL
With their silent toleration of illegal machinations, Berlin and Brussels continue with their known Balkan policy, in which suspected war criminals are allies - like the "President" of Kosovo, Agim Ceku. Ceku, a protégé of Berlin and campaigner for independent status for Kosovo will be received this week at the German Foreign Office for negotiations. He is accused of serious war crimes (5)

"Harmonisation inconceivable"

In Berlin the decision on Montenegro's secession is regarded with calmness. "Independence will not bring any great changes with it" says Franz-Lothar Altmann, an expert on South East Europe for the Foundation for Policy Study (SWP). The political systems of Serbia and Montenegro were already "totally distinct, harmonisation between them inconceivable and, up to now, the Union did not function at all" (6) - a result of the Berlin's currency and economic policies. Experts on South Eastern Europe believe that it would be advantageous if Djukanovic were to fall from power after secession: then "a new leading personality must be found who is free of the burdens of the past". (7)

Regardless of the outcome of next Sunday's referendum, after the separation of Kosovo which is planned for this year, (8) only a territorial core will remain of the original Serb state. The Serbian mini-state has already been rendered incapable of any influence over Montenegro. Serious resistance to Berlin's South East European plans, such as occurred in Milosevic's Yugoslavia, is not to be expected.

Against this background, the centres of hegemony in Western Europe are driving forward an economic re-ordering of Europe's South Eastern periphery. In January Brussels demanded an agreement between the "West Balkan" states (Croatia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Serbia-Montenegro, Macedonia and Albania) for a free trade area. In these countries such a proposal is not regarded as negotiable because it would lead to an economic and political reconstruction of something not unlike that Yugoslavia which was torn to pieces by war. The "West Balkan states" would join the free trade zone formally by accession to the Central European Free Trade Agreement (CEFTA) of which Bulgaria and Romania are members. After their soon-expected accession to the EU, Bulgaria and Romania would pull out. As a result Yugoslavia would arise anew - as a politically disempowered entity, a sort of Grand Bazaar for Western business concerns.

References (see www.german-foreign-policy.com website)

David Binder writes on Montenegro:

The United Nations has 191 members. Four of those which have joined since 1991 were constituent republics of the former Yugoslav Federation. So who could be surprised if the world body grows to 200 in the next few years, with some of the newest additions again emerging from the mess that was made of Yugoslavia?

Montenegro, population 690,000 - a new mini-state? At least it could boast
three times more population than Vanuatu, which joined the UN in 1981, and
ten times more than Andorra, which joined in 1993. Weighed on the scales of world events, the May 21 referendum on independenceof Montenegro may amount to something between a sigh and a hiccup. But for those who know a little and care more about the Balkans it is something of greater gravity.

This is so because Montenegro represents an essential part of the Serbian cultural space. Montenegro's princes of the Petrovic-Njegos dynasty made their link to Serbia abundantly clear from 1697 onward. Two of the most accomplished contemporary writers have underscored this attachment. Milovan Djilas said in 1993 (to me as I am sure he said to others): "Montenegrins are basically Serbs." And just last month Matija Beckovic, a friend of Djilas, branded the referendum "the greatest insult to the national
consciousness of Montenegro."

For the last 15 years, Montenegro has been ruled by what earlier was called a petty despot (the usage is considered old-fashioned). Now we call such a person a crook. That characterization emerges from indictments involving international tobacco trafficking in the law courts of three countries, in which Milo Djukanovic is named as a conspirator.

But tobacco smuggling is only part of Montenegro's dark side under Djukanovic. Exposés of sex trafficking have revealed the involvement of officials of his government. His territory is also crossed by transit routes for drugs and weapons. Just two years ago, an opposition journalist, Dusko Jovanovic, was killed by a gunman who remains free today.

Concerned by the high bar set by the European Union for winning the
referendum - 55 percent of the vote - the Djukanovic forces were found
trying to buy votes in March.

To a degree in the 1990s the Clinton Administration helped to advance the career of Djukanovic. It overlooked his origins as the protégé of Slobodan Milosevic, while backing his separatist ambitions at critical junctures during the Yugoslav civil wars.

Djukanovic still has opportunistic advocates here in the persons of Mitch
McConnell, the Republican from the tobacco state of Kentucky and one of the
most powerful men in the Senate; Morton Abramowitz of the Century Foundation
and Janusz Bugajski of the Center for Strategic and International Studies,
now director of the board of a lobby group set up to push the Kosovo
Albanian independence project in Washington. The other two are also vocal
supporters of Albanian causes.

For instance, some polls show the voters of Montenegro are divided on the
independence issue. Yet the 300,000 Montenegrins who reside in Serbia, are not permitted to vote in the referendum. This means that the small minorities of ethnic Albanians, Bosnians, Muslims could swing the outcome in favor of independence.

A mid-April poll conducted for the Podgorica government indicated that 55.9
percent of surveyed citizens of Montenegro will support independence in the
referendum. This reminds one of a Belgrade joke on the subject:These two polls might make a metaphor for the referendum: the public opinion testing, ritually practiced almost daily in self-styled democracies almost as a substitute for actual elections, versus the joke about the poll. On that note, let us consider how Milo Djukanovic might deal with
Montenegro's residues of Serbian culture in case he wins the referendum. He
could rename the country Djukanistan.

David Binder (born 1931) was a correspondent for The New York Times from
1961 until 2004. He specialized in coverage of central and eastern Europe,
based in Berlin, Belgrade and Bonn. The current piece was published in
Belgrade's Politika on May 11, 2006.